Thursday, September 19, 2024

CURRENT SITUATION: NOTES ON THE GLOBAL CRISIS (26. The latest developments in Lebanon)

 The press releases in summary:

“Hezbollah has been the target of a large-scale intelligence operation since Tuesday. Thousands of small explosions occurred across Lebanon on Tuesday evening. The explosive devices were hidden in so-called pagers, small devices used by Hezbollah to receive text messages. A second wave followed on Wednesday evening. This time several radios apparently detonated.

After pager attacks, radio sets are also exploding in Lebanon: the number of victims has increased after the explosions

After at least twelve people were killed in pager explosions on Tuesday, new explosions occurred on Wednesday, leaving dead and wounded. The most important questions and answers” ​​(September 18, 2024)

“US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart on Wednesday for the third time in 48 hours following consecutive days of pager and walkie-talkie explosions in Lebanon blamed on Israel that killed dozens and injured thousands.


The increased frequency of the calls underscores the sensitivity of the moment as US officials push for a diplomatic solution to an increasingly volatile situation between Israel and Hezbollah.


Austin told Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that the United States was committed to “deterring regional adversaries” as well as “efforts to reduce tensions across the region,” according to a summary of the call” (September 19, 2024).


“Following the explosions in Lebanon, the UN Security Council will meet on an emergency basis on Friday. UN Secretary-General António Guterres spoke on Wednesday of a “grave risk of a dramatic escalation.” “Everything must be done to avoid it.” Guterres was speaking at a press conference, referring to Tuesday’s explosions.)


“Recent comments by Israel’s defense minister indicate a shift in focus toward Hezbollah, with Israel “pivoting north” after concentrating efforts in Gaza. He said this escalation could lead to an invasion or widespread bombing of Lebanon.” (The last two notes are also from today.)


OUR COMMENT:


The Zionist-imperialist war of aggression in its current military campaign against the Palestinian national resistance movement - in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and against the National Liberation Movement in the neighbouring countries of the Greater Middle East (MOA) - had as its declared purpose the genocidal government of the Zionist State of Israel to destroy the Palestinian Resistance movement and the national liberation movement in the MOA region.


This objective has been declared by both the Israeli civil and military authorities in various ways. To destroy the Palestinian resistance movement, to separate the guerrilla from the masses and to displace part of the population of the Strip outside Palestine and to extend the occupation in the West Bank, and to promote the tendency towards capitulation in the Palestinian, Arab and Iranian movement and its supporters in the MOA countries is the main objective, the strategic objective of mainly Yankee imperialism and its Zionist lackeys in the State of Israel.


In fact, this imperialist-Zionist strategic objective was doomed to failure from the beginning. They know that they will not achieve it in the face of the heroic Palestinian resistance and the struggle of the national liberation movement of the MOA, the immense support and solidarity of the international proletariat and the peoples of the world. This is where the victory achieved by the armed struggle of the national Resistance of the Palestinian people lies.


The Zionist-imperialist enemy, bogged down in the genocidal war against the people, reaping only failures, can only pursue the tactical objective of causing the greatest possible damage to the Palestinian Resistance and the MLN of the MOA, with greater genocide against the people and seeking to lead the Resistance and the national liberation movement to capitulation by weighing diplomatic deals that place the Palestinian Resistance and the national liberation movement of the region between the growing Zionist-imperialist US military pressure and the hypocritical and interested advice of capitulation and “mediation” of Russian imperialism and Chinese social-imperialism; thus the Resistance is undermined. We see how the Iranian government is considering the negotiations and this is important because of its influence on the entire national liberation movement in the region.


The above is based on the incontestable facts that have been occurring in this regard and, to avoid long enumerations, with what a scholar who is unsuspected of being a Maoist summarizes in this regard, as can be read in the almost final part of the interview with an expert from an English imperialist institute, “Peter Neumann, professor of Security Studies at King's College London, where he heads the International Center for the Study of Radicalization,” who works for the English imperialist institute, who in the referred part says:


ARD: What do you think Iran will do in this situation?

Neumann: Well, Iran held back quite a bit after the assassination of Hamas leader Hanija in Tehran a few weeks ago. There was probably a lot of pressure from the Americans, but probably also diplomacy, deterrence and persuasion from Russia and China. The question, of course, is: the pressure in the cauldron is increasing and we are already in a difficult situation: what happens next? There is still a way out of this situation, but of course there could also be an escalation.”


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A MEDIUM BOURGEOIS INTERVIEW


The German television interview is extremely important to read, there is a lesson to be learned, so we put it to your consideration.


A form of psychological warfare"

As of: September 19, 2024 12:09 p.m.

About the person

Peter Neumann is Professor of Security Studies at King's College London, where he heads the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation.

Terrorism researcher Peter Neumann also suspects that Israel is behind the radio and pager explosions in Lebanon. A new form of warfare? With what aim? And what are the possible consequences?

ARD: The fact that the walkie-talkies of many Hezbollah members exploded a day after the pagers exploded, did you expect that?

Peter Neumann: No, I didn't expect that. And it means that the Israelis have infiltrated Hezbollah's entire supply chain, that Hezbollah It can no longer rely on anything and of course it is now in a major crisis. If I were the militia, I would shut everything down right now, because of course I don't know if anything else will come. That's why this second wave was a kind of act of psychological warfare, where the Israelis made it clear again: we have them in our hands.

ARD: That requires very precise planning. The devices have to be equipped with explosives and delivered to the intended recipients. And then the signal has to go out to trigger the explosions. Has there ever been anything comparable?

Neumann: Well, the Israelis even carried out similar actions in the 1990s. To try to kill a terrorist leader, they stole his mobile phone, attached an explosive device to it and then blew it up. But that was one phone, not 3,000. The size, quality and quantity of this operation is truly, as far as I know, unique.

Expert suspects spies in Hezbollah ranks

ARD: Are you assuming that there are members within Hezbollah who work for Israel? So Hezbollah has been infiltrated, possibly also by agents of Israel?

Neumann: So is it to be understood that Hezbollah is, along with Iran, the number one target of Israeli espionage? It is considered the most important strategic threat directly on the border with Israel. And of course, this organization is investigated from start to finish to the extent possible. All possible communications are intercepted. And of course, there are also informants, spies within Hezbollah who have information and communications. And I strongly suspect that in this case there is a network of front companies, including in Europe, that may be trying to get into Hezbollah's supply chain. So everything is imaginable, from all sides.

“Pushing opponents into chaos”

ARD: Suddenly, an electronic device explodes and receives messages in any form. Could this be a new form of warfare?

Neumann: This is the kind of unconventional warfare that the Israelis are also known for. Their goal is not always to simply gain territory, but rather to use this form of psychological warfare to destabilize the enemy, cause it to fall into chaos and, in principle, make it unable to fight. Now the big question is whether the Israelis will be able to turn what they consider a tactical success into a strategic success. That shook Hezbollah quite a bit. But what are the Israelis doing with it now? Does that actually do anything? And will it lead to lasting success for Israel in the long term?

ARD: In your opinion, can this lead to a major military operation by Israel against Hezbollah? The hospitals in Beirut are full. If Hezbollah were to enter a major war against Israel, it would hardly be able to treat the wounded in the hospitals. Is this a calculation that Israel is perhaps also hiding behind?

Neumann: Yes, the Israeli Minister of Defence has already announced this. And he was not the first, by the way. The Israelis have been saying for months that a change of direction, a change of scenery is imminent. Hamas was, so to speak, the tactical danger. The strategic threat is Hezbollah. Israel considers the situation in the north of the country, where large parts had to be evacuated, to be unbearable. Israel sees Hezbollah as a long arm of Iran and does not want to live in direct proximity to Hezbollah in the long term. That means that there will be a confrontation. And it could well have been a calculation to create a situation in which Hezbollah could not fight back. And an even larger Israeli offensive may be imminent in the coming days.

Tactical successes without a strategic plan?

ARD: What do you think Iran will do in this situation?

Neumann: Well, Iran held back quite a bit after the assassination of Hamas leader Hanija in Tehran a few weeks ago. There was probably a lot of pressure from the Americans, but probably also diplomacy, deterrence and persuasion from Russia and China. The question, of course, is: the pressure in the cauldron is increasing and we are already in a complicated situation: what happens next? There is still a way out of this situation, but of course there could also be an escalation.

ARD: That is exactly the question: if it continues to escalate, after the Gaza Strip, it may now be increasingly directed against Hezbollah. Do you recognise Israel's political plan?

Neumann: Well, the political plan is to eliminate the biggest strategic opponent in the immediate neighbourhood. Hezbollah has fired 8,500 rockets at Israel, killing at least 30 people in the past few months, and 80,000 Israelis have had to flee to other parts of the country because they can no longer live in some parts of Israel. This is a threat that Israel does not want to live with in the long term. I very much hope that Israel actually has a strategic plan. As I said, that is always the problem with Israel. Great tactical successes, but what then is the strategic plan, the political goal? How do you turn tactical success into a lasting peace? How do you permanently eliminate an opponent? There is often no answer to this.