Tuesday, August 6, 2024

CURRENT SITUATION: NOTES ON THE GLOBAL CRISIS (22. Background and possibilities of current development of the Palestinian Resistance war)

 Israel has launched four major military attacks on Gaza – in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014 and 2021 – to destroy the Hamas-led Palestinian resistance. These wars killed four thousand Palestinians, more than half of whom were civilians, along with 106 people in Israel. In the current military campaign of Israel's war against Palestine, more than 42 thousand Palestinians have already been killed, most of whom are civilians, including thousands of children.


Each of these wars ended with a fragile ceasefire. Israel aims to destroy the Palestinian resistance and to complete the displacement of part of the population in order to complete its colonialist plans of conquest with the direction, advice and active participation of US imperialism and other imperialist and lackey states in the region.


The pretext has always been Hamas' rocket attacks. Hamas and other militant groups claim that even when they have respected previous ceasefires, Israel has continued to attack Palestinians and has refused to lift the blockade.


Ahead of October 2023, Hamas has offered a long-term truce in exchange for Israel ending the blockade of Gaza. Israel has refused to accept the offer, clinging to its position that Hamas must first end the violence and recognize Israel.


In the months leading up to the Palestinian Resistance's military counter-campaign, conditions in Gaza and the other "occupied territories" have deteriorated further according to UN sources.


This is the background to previous clashes in this war of Resistance of the Palestinian people against the forces of the Zionist-imperialist occupier. Added to this background is Iran's response to the attack by the Zionist State of Israel against one of its diplomatic headquarters in recent months. It should be remembered that in 2014, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Khamenei, spoke of sending 70,000 volunteers to fight alongside the Palestinians in Gaza against the Zionists and then deactivated the preparation, declaring that Iran's hands were tied.


Will this time be more of the same?


A commentator on this attitude of Iran, in similar situations in the past, with grand declarations, without specifying a greater involvement in the Palestinian resistance war against the Zionists, commented that possibly Iran did not want to be involved in a conventional war and that it preferred to act in a limited way in its asymmetric war against the Zionists and the Yankee imperialists through Hezbollah, the Yemeni guerrillas and the Shiite forces of Iraq, such as those that attacked the Yankee military base yesterday.


This attack in Iraq allows us to foresee that Iran's response could be to continue with attacks of the same style but with greater propaganda impact. Even more so taking into account the current deployment of more US imperialist military forces to that area.


In other words, the US imperialists plan the Zionist attacks and then put them behind their backs to try to prevent the response of the just punishment of their opponents, acting like the neighborhood bully who sends his gang to attack.


Bear in mind that the foreign chief of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran was in favor of the path of negotiations, so he had contradictions with those who are in favor of the path of prolonged armed Resistance within the Resistance and Hamas itself.


Another piece of news that must be taken into account in order to see what will happen in the next few days or weeks is the upcoming elections in the US in November and that Netalyhau has met on his visit to the US, recently, with Biden and Trump, who apparently have a common position so that the issue does not become a very sharp confrontation in the campaign. For this reason, we present two news items from the bourgeois press, one from El País and another from FAZ of Germany:

War between Israel and Gaza, live | Borrell calls for avoiding a war of unknown proportion in the Middle East

Iran affirms that revenge against Israel for the death of the political leader of Hamas is “inevitable” | At least eight Palestinians killed by Israeli attacks in recent hours in the West Bank.

EL PAÍS

Updated:06 AUG 2024 - 14:51 CEST


The High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Affairs, Josep Borrell, has warned that the increase in tension leaves the Middle East on the brink of a "war of unknown proportions" and has called for avoiding it through an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Iranian authorities assured yesterday that revenge against Israel for the murder of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniya is "inevitable." For his part, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned G-7 countries on Monday that an Iranian attack on Israel could occur within 24 hours. On the Israeli side, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has called on the army to prepare for “all options” in the event of an Iranian offensive, but has not raised the alert level for its civilians. In addition, Israeli forces have killed at least eight Palestinians in the West Bank in the last few hours. Four people were killed last night in clashes with the Israeli army in Tubas, near the border with Jordan. Later, the Palestinian Red Crescent confirmed four more deaths following two air strikes against two vehicles in Jenin.

US tries to dissuade Iran, through intermediaries, from retaliation against Israel


The United States is trying to communicate to Iran through diplomatic channels with intermediary countries that it is not in its interest to carry out the attack against Israel that it is threatening to carry out after the assassination last week in Tehran of the political leader of the radical Palestinian militia Hamas, Ismail Haniya. “One of the things we have been doing is urging other countries to transmit messages to Iran and make it clear that it is in their best interest not to provoke an escalation of the conflict,” insisted the spokesman for the State Department Matthew Miller. The head of US diplomacy, Antony Blinken, has described the current situation in the Middle East as a “critical moment”.


“All parties must refrain from escalating tensions,” insisted the Secretary of State at a document signing ceremony with his Australian counterpart, Penny Wong, this Monday in Washington.


The Biden administration, he stressed, is conducting “intense diplomacy around the clock” to try to reduce these tensions and avoid Iranian retaliation that could spread the current conflict in Gaza to other parts of the Middle East. Blinken spoke by phone on Monday with Qatari Prime Minister Mohamed bin Abdulrahman al Thani and his Egyptian counterpart, Badr Abdelati. For his part, US President Joe Biden discussed the situation in the region with King Abdullah II of Jordan.

Iran blames Israel for the bombing that killed Haniya last week. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, although it has not explicitly denied it either.


In his remarks, Blinken insisted on the need to put in place a ceasefire agreement and exchange of hostages in Gaza. “In the end, it is about all parties finding ways to reach an agreement, not to delay it or refuse it,” he said. “It is urgent that all parties make the right decisions in the coming days and hours.”


https://www.faz.net/aktuell/

MIDDLE EAST WAR:

Fears of Iranian retaliation grow

06/08/2024, 06



An attack on Israel could reportedly be imminent. The United States is trying to defuse it. The Bundeswehr is preparing for an evacuation mission.


In view of the threat of retaliatory strikes by Iran and its allies against Israel, the United States is still trying to avoid a major war in the Middle East. “We are conducting intense diplomatic discussions almost around the clock with a very simple message: all sides must refrain from escalation,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said after a meeting with his Australian counterpart Penny Wong in Washington. The exact timing of the long-awaited strike against Israel is still unclear, but according to media reports it could be imminent.

The Wall Street Journal quoted US government officials as saying they had observed since the weekend that Iran was moving missile launchers and conducting military exercises. This could indicate that Tehran is preparing for an attack in the coming days. Iran and its allies in the region have said they will punish Israel harshly for the assassination of Hamas foreign chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last week.


US President Joe Biden retreated to the White House situation center with his security team. Biden then announced in Platform Measures to defend US forces in the region “and respond to any attack on our personnel in the manner and at the place of our choosing” were also discussed.


Pentagon: US soldiers wounded in attack in Iraq

According to the Pentagon's first findings, several US soldiers were wounded in an attack on a military base in Iraq, a US Department of Defense spokesman said. As a result, the Al-Assad airbase used by US troops and partners was reportedly attacked by a missile. Since the beginning of the Gaza war between Israel and the Islamist Hamas, militias allied to Iran have repeatedly attacked US military bases in Iraq and Syria.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant agreed in a joint conversation that the attack represented a “dangerous escalation and highlights Iran’s destabilizing role in the region,” a Pentagon spokesman said later. According to the Pentagon, the United States is moving more warships and fighter jets to the region. The commander of US troops in the Middle East, General Michael Erik Kurilla, met in Israel with Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.


According to the Israeli military, the conversation also touched on “joint preparations” to counter threats in the region. Gallant, according to local media, said during a visit to the Air Force’s underground command center in Tel Aviv that the military must prepare for all possibilities, including a “rapid transition to the offensive.”



Report: Russia supplies Iran with air defense equipment

According to a media report, Russia has begun supplying Iran with modern radar systems and airspace defense equipment. Iran had previously requested modern air defense systems from Russia in preparation for a possible war with Israel, the New York Times reported, citing two Iranian officials said to be familiar with war planning. Delivery had begun, it said, after talks between Russian National Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and senior Iranian representatives in Tehran.


Moscow maintains close contacts with Tehran, but also has contacts with Israel. The Russian government called on all parties to exercise restraint.


In the face of an impending attack on Israel, flights bound for Jordan must prepare for a possible change of route. All arriving aircraft must refuel in advance with fuel for an additional 45 minutes of flight, according to a security notice from the kingdom's civil aviation authority. In the event of an attack, they would have enough fuel to change route in a short time and land in a neighbouring country. The warning from the Jordanian authorities is valid until midnight this evening (CEST).


Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time in April. During the attack with more than 300 drones, rockets and cruise missiles, Jordan became the first country in the region to close its airspace.


Bundeswehr ready for major evacuation operation

In view of the worsening situation, the Bundeswehr is prepared for a major operation to evacuate German citizens. For this purpose, A400M transport aircraft and soldiers are ready at Wunstorf air base in Lower Saxony, which can take off at short notice, the German Press Agency reported. The navy is also making preparations. The operation could primarily involve the evacuation of Germans who remained in Lebanon despite repeated calls for them to leave.


Possible Bundeswehr aid to Israel is considered controversial. The chairman of the Bundestag's defence committee, Marcus Faber, is sceptical about the deployment of the Bundeswehr in the Middle East conflict. Germany should help Israel, for example, by quickly approving arms exports, the FDP politician told the editorial network Germany (RND). But he added: “The Bundeswehr was not asked in Israel and could do little to help.”


CDU foreign policymaker Roderich Kiesewetter had previously argued that the federal government should also offer military defence aid to Israel in view of the threat of an Iranian attack. His party colleague Johann Wadephul sees it differently. “As far as we know, scenarios such as military support are not on the agenda. For that, a mandate from the Bundestag would be necessary,” said the deputy chairman of the Union parliamentary group in the RND.


SPD defence expert Andreas Schwarz told the RND: “So far there has been no investigation by Israel. “But I assume that the federal government is prepared for this and is in contact with Israel and its Western allies on this issue.” Schwarz pointed out that protecting Israel is a German matter of state. “This is a clear promise with a very high level of responsibility. In an emergency, these big words must be followed by corresponding actions.”