II
Nature of the War
As war is
the continuation of politics by other means:
- Russia's
war against Ukraine is the continuation of its imperialist policy, in collusion
and struggle with the sole hegemonic superpower, Yankee imperialism, and with
the imperialist powers of Europe, to seize Ukraine. Therefore, it is an
imperialist war, an unjust war, and not a national war;
- Ukraine's war of resistance is the continuation of the Ukrainian nation's policy of maintaining its national sovereignty and independence. It is a national war, a just war.
However,
considering the relationship between economy, politics, and war, it is
necessary to keep in mind that Ukraine is a semi-colony, as such, ruled by the
big bourgeoisie, which is divided into factions and groups dependent on
different imperialist masters; some are lackeys of Yankee imperialism, while
others are lackeys of German, British, French, etc., and also Russian
imperialism.
Those who
are part of the country's big bourgeoisie, along with the entire Ukrainian
nation, were seeking to free themselves from the colonial oppression of Russian
imperialism. Later, after becoming a semi-colony, around 2014, they displaced
the pro-Russian lackeys from the country's government, shifting the
predominance of imperialist domination from one imperialism to another, that
is, Yankee imperialism.
What implications does
the nature of Zelensky's government have for the nation's war of resistance?
Recall that
in November 2013, the Ukrainian government, led by the pro-Russian lackey
Yanukonovich, signed the association agreement with the EU at the European
Union (EU) Summit in Vilnius; meanwhile, Moscow pressured the Ukrainian
government to join its Eurasian customs union initiative. The lackey Yanukovych
and his group vacillated between the EU and the customs union (Russia), seeking
better negotiating terms. Ultimately, they did not formalize the agreement with
the Union. Protests by those dissatisfied with this decision erupted in kyiv's
Maidan Square, fueled by the US and the EU through their lackeys and agents
(indirect intervention). On February 21, a coup d'état was carried out by these
elements in complicity with extremist elements. The government was immediately
recognized by the EU. This government repealed the law protecting national
languages, including Russian. Elections were held later (2019), through which
the current president, Zelensky, a lackey of the Yankees, was nominated.
At the
present time, what implications does what we have said above have for the
Ukrainian nation's war of resistance?
- The
lackey status of those who run the country, primarily Yankee imperialism, has
led to the current war of national resistance depending on external
"aid"—economic and military—from the United States (65%) and the rest
from Germany, and to a lesser extent from France, England, etc. And, since
those who run the country depend on Yankee imperialists, the latter manipulate
them according to their interests, that is, the interests of their class, the
financial oligarchy. - As we have already pointed out in part (I) and note
(*I), the country's president, Zelensky, and his team are capitulating to
pressure from their Yankee imperialist master and submitting to all the
conditions imposed by the Donald Trump administration for a US-Russia agreement
on a "ceasefire" and a future "peace agreement." This
agreement is on the path to collusion with Russian imperialism, as the latest
news shows (see appendix on Chronicle **).
War Objectives and
Current Situation
1. Political Objective:
-
Imperialism: Maximalist, Russian: to suppress the country's political independence
through annexation, recovering its colonial rule from the era of the Tsars and
the social-imperialist USSR.
Minimalist:
to transform it into a "failed," "neutral" state without
its own army, divided into various zones annexed to Russia and others under
different puppet authorities.
- From the
Ukrainian nation: fight to maintain its sovereignty or independence, which it
achieved after the bankruptcy of Soviet revisionism and the dissolution of the
USSR.
With the
war of aggression of Russian imperialism, 20% of its territory is occupied,
giving the country a colonial and semi-colonial character (formal political
independence).
2. Military Objectives:
At the strategic level:
- Neither
of the two contending forces, neither the Russian imperialist aggressor nor the
forces of the Ukrainian national resistance, have achieved their strategic
objectives in the war.
- With the
war of aggression, Russian imperialism has not achieved the capitulation of the
Ukrainian national resistance, which is fighting to maintain its sovereignty
and maintains 80% of its territory in its hands. On the other hand, the war of
national resistance has not achieved victory over the invading forces, which
retain 20% of Ukraine's territory.
At the tactical level:
- Russia
controls around 20% of Ukraine's territory and is advancing daily.
- Ukraine
controls 500 square kilometers (of the 1,400 it controlled in August 2024) in
the Russian Kursk region. According to the article "War and Peace in
Ukraine: Between Munich, Doha, and Yalta," by Mira Milosevich-Juaristi,
ALI 22/2025 - 17/2/2025 - Elcano Royal Institute.
A previous
article by the same imperialist institute on this subject reads:
"Ten
years after the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 and more than 1,000 days
since the 2022 invasion, no military solution is foreseen on the battlefield.
Both sides have sought it with offensives that have not had sufficient
superiority in means to overwhelm the opponent's well-organized lines of
resistance. Today, the tactical gains on both sides are not translating into
decisive operational or strategic advantages, and the war of attrition
continues. Meanwhile, with the arrival of the Trump Administration confirmed in
January, expectations are growing that Russia and Ukraine will negotiate an
agreement to end the war (Ukraine at War: Nobody Will Ask for a Draw, Félix
Arteaga, December 2, 2024, El Cano...).
The latest
news report (March 13, 2025) on the matter states:
“The
Russian president has always spoken abstractly about the objectives of his
‘special military operation’ in order to be able to justify his victory in the
future, regardless of its scope. His major 2022 offensive threatened Kyiv,
Odessa, and Kharkiv before its failure. Today, his troops are dislodging
Ukrainian forces from Kursk, Russian territory, while the campaign in eastern
Ukraine has stalled for months and has not reached Pokrovsk. In any case, Putin
has hinted that he wants the total demilitarization of Ukraine and a
Kremlin-friendly government—what he calls denazification, despite considering
the elections won by Petro Poroshenko in 2014 and Zelensky in 2019 legitimate.
(Russia's War in Ukraine, The Truce Plan in Ukraine Places Putin in the Dilemma
of Angering Trump or Russian Nationalists, Javier G. Cuesta, Moscow - 13 2025 –
El País newspaper).
How did
military control of Ukraine change (March 9, 2025)?
Russia's full-scale invasion began with dozens of missile strikes on cities all over Ukraine before dawn on 24 February 2022.
Russian ground troops moved in quickly and within a few weeks were in control of large areas of Ukraine and had advanced to the suburbs of Kyiv.
Russian forces were bombarding Kharkiv, and they had taken territory in the east and south as far as Kherson, and surrounded the port city of Mariupol.
Ukrainian forces were also quick to deploy Western supplied arms such as the Nlaw anti-tank system, which proved highly effective against the Russian advance.
By October 2022, the picture had changed dramatically and, having failed to take Kyiv, Russia withdrew completely from the north. The following month, Ukrainian forces recaptured the southern city of Kherson.
Since then, the battle has mostly been in the east of Ukraine with Russian forces slowly gaining ground over many months, with at least 70,000 Russian troops killed - and an estimated 500,000 being either killed or injured in total, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.
By Dominic Bailey, Mike Hills, Paul Sargeant, Chris Clayton, Kady Wardell, Camilla Costa, Mark Bryson, Sana Dionysiou, Gerry Fletcher, Kate Gaynor and Erwan Rivault (BBC, Ukraine on Maps: Tracking the War with Russia).
UKRAINE IS THE SPOILS
OF THE IMPERIALIST DISPUTE
Since war
is the continuation of politics by other means, it is also necessary to see the
contradiction between the imperialists over the division of the spoils, which
is Ukraine, advancing, increasingly, in sharper collusion and struggle.
Currently, collusion is manifesting as a necessity for both Yankee and Russian
imperialism, each due to the different difficulties they are facing and the
need to readjust their strategic plans. Collusion is on its way to becoming the
main one between the US and Russia.
A LITTLE HISTORY:
In December
1991, as a result of the bankruptcy of revisionism, the imperialist social
superpower, the former revisionist Soviet Union, was reduced to imperialist
Russia and lost colonies and semi-colonies, thereby reducing the size of its
economy and population. Militarily, the Warsaw Pact collapsed, and
economically, the Comecon (Knowledge of the Soviet Union) also disappeared,
losing its economic monopoly in the countries that comprised it. Its scientific
and technical personnel emigrated en masse to Western imperialist countries.
Russia
became the "lean dog" and continued as an imperialist nuclear
superpower, with an economic weight similar to that of the imperialist power of
Italy and based primarily on the export of gas, oil, other raw materials, and
weapons.
Ukraine
acquired sovereignty in August 1992 and signed the Commonwealth of Independent
States Treaty in 1993, thereby recognizing its status as a state within
Russia's sphere of influence and its military subjection to it. As can be seen,
Russia, which sought and seeks colonial domination in Ukraine, is losing
ground. Ukraine is entering a semi-colonial situation, within which, from the
time of the current war of aggression, Russia was displaced from its position
as the principal imperialist power, which dominates it in Ukraine, by Yankee
imperialism, in collusion and conflict with other imperialist powers such as
Germany, France, etc.
Historically,
the axis on which the old Tsarist state was established, from which current
imperialist Russia is a continuation, was the one that runs from kyiv to Moscow
and later extended to Petrograd. This means that Russian imperialism considers
the territory of Ukraine to be its strategic zone, its own territory, without
whose control and domination, the existence of the Russian state itself as an
independent entity and, above all, as an atomic superpower is definitively
called into question. And this is precisely what happened when Ukraine affirmed
its formal independence, with the displacement of Russian imperialism, with the
Maidam events, and with a "pro-Western" government opposed to the
interests of imperialist Russia.
The Strategic Position
of the Imperialists in Their Contest for Ukraine
The above
is the key to understanding the strategic position of the imperialists in their
contest for Ukraine, to assessing who has gained positions and who has lost
positions in this strategic country, as spoils in the imperialist dispute.
-
NATION-IMPERIALISM CONTRADICTION.- Since 1991, everything Russian imperialism
has done with respect to Ukraine has been to keep it within its sphere of
influence and maintain it, in accordance with its chauvinistic imperialist
doctrine of "Great Russian" inherited from the tsars, as part of the
strategic defense of its own territory. On the other hand, all the efforts, all
the struggles of the oppressed nation of Ukraine have been to achieve and
maintain its (formal) political independence, its right to form its own state
separate from Russia. And this imperialist power (atomic superpower) is the main
threat to its existence as a state with its own sovereignty.
-
INTER-IMPERIALIST CONTRADICTION.- Everything that the sole hegemonic
imperialist superpower, Yankee imperialism, and other imperialist powers such
as Germany, France, England, etc., have done since 1990 has been a threat to
its existence. It seeks to occupy the entire so-called post-Soviet space, to
advance politically, economically, and militarily throughout the sphere of
influence that imperialist Russia, as the heir to the former social-imperialist
USSR, claims for itself in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
At this
juncture, for the Yankees, it is a matter of continuing with their strategic
plan to maintain their hegemony in Eurasia, which is key to maintaining their
status as the sole hegemonic imperialist superpower. For Russia, it is a matter
of rebuilding its forces after the immense exhaustion represented on various
fronts by the war against Ukraine and buying time for the coming decades to
once again become a superpower capable of striving for global hegemony. For
both sides, it is a matter of reaching an agreement not only on the Ukrainian
issue but also a general agreement on security, which undoubtedly must reflect
the shift in power that has been occurring between them, which we referred to
in Part I.
Yankee
imperialism applies its motto of "divide and conquer," which
specifically translates into its pursuit of dividing the European Union,
Germany and the imperialist alliance it leads (the EU) from Russia, Russia from
China, the EU from China, and Russia from Iran at various levels. This process
has its stages. Yankee imperialism's strategic orientation to maintain its
global hegemony and its role as global policeman remains in place despite the
changes in government between the Democratic Party and Republican Party mafias
at the helm of the US.
US-Russia
Negotiations: On the Future of Ukraine and Russian-US Relations
The US and
Russia, we repeat, are seeking to collude against Ukraine, but also, in their
collusion, they seek to advance a general agreement not only on atomic weapons,
etc., but also on economic and political matters. This can be seen from the
latest steps taken by the US government on this issue.
On March
11, a meeting in Saudi Arabia between the US delegation, led by Foreign
Minister Marco Rubio, and the Ukrainian government delegation, which was not
led by Zelensky, accepted all the US conditions regarding the "ceasefire
agreement," etc., and the latter agreed to resume "aid"
immediately.
Putin's
government has yet to comment on the US proposal, which has received the
Ukrainian government's approval. However, an article in El País today (March
13, 2025) reads:
"The
Kremlin does not want to anger Trump. And the negotiations have been divided
between discussions about the future of Ukraine, on the one hand, and
Russian-US relations, on the other." The US president announced this
Wednesday that a delegation was heading to Moscow. Six members of the Russian
government told the independent newspaper The Moscow Times that Russia wants to
arrange a personal meeting between Trump and Putin in a third country between
April or May. “Washington could lose motivation [toward Moscow]. Opponents of
rapprochement with us have become more active in the White House, and the
Europeans are trying to dissuade Trump,” one of the sources told the newspaper
(Russia's War in Ukraine, The Truce Plan in Ukraine Places Putin in the Dilemma
of Angering Trump or Russian Nationalists, Javier G. Cuesta, Moscow - 13 2025 –
El País newspaper).
Everything
explained above, regarding the development of the balance of power between
Yankee imperialism and Russian imperialism in the international situation as a
whole, and not just with regard to Ukraine, must be taken into account in
determining who is in the stronger position and who is in the weaker position
in the current US-Russia negotiations. This clearly shows that Yankee
imperialism is the one calling the call, setting the agenda, and on the
stronger side between the two.
REVOLUTION IS THE MAIN
TREND
World
Reaction is realizing its situation, feeling increasingly cornered, and
therefore is defending itself more desperately and is ready to plunge the world
into hecatombs in the defense of its power. We must not be confused or
intimidated.
We know
that the same contenders of World War I and II are preparing for the Third
Imperialist World War and will wage it when they are ready.
Chairman
Gonzalo has rightly said that we cannot always be focused on the imperialist
world war. Whether it will happen or not, war is inevitable, and they will wage
it when they are ready.
Our problem
is people's war, specifically, preparing for it, turning those aggressions, or
that inter-imperialist war, or that imperialist world war into a people's war,
or preparing ourselves, even without an imperialist war, without direct
aggression from imperialism, to raise the flag of people's war and dare to
fight, which is the case in Peru. We do not consider that the problem of
revolution arises from the war of reactionaries. Revolution arises from
revolutionary war, from people's war. Others are simply dreaming about how to
turn the world imperialist war into revolution. An absurd theory.
The
outbreak of an imperialist world war could become the main issue, temporarily,
but it will necessarily hit the oppressed nations, since the spoils, the
distribution, would be at stake. These are the oppressed nations, and
consequently, the main contradiction will quickly become the main one, since it
operates at the base.
We must
understand that the main contradiction, as the PCP states it, is the main one
historically, until imperialism and reaction are swept from the face of the
earth, because we are the vast majority.
If the
oppressed nations, in the vast masses of the earth, increasingly hungry and
exploited, break imperialist domination, they are helping to crush imperialist
power itself in its metropolis.
** CHRONICLE OF RECENT EVENTS
“On Friday (February 28), a scandal of historic proportions erupted during Zelensky's visit to the White House. In front of cameras in the Oval Office, Trump and his deputy, JD Vance, violently attacked the Ukrainian president for “not wanting peace” and “demanding US security guarantees.” In the heated exchange, they accused Zelensky of being ungrateful for US military aid and of showing disrespect. At the same time, Trump threatened to terminate US support if Zelensky did not accept a “deal” with Russia.”
From the
above and what followed, it is clear that he has been required to submit to the
US-Russia agreements to divide the country based on US interests, which have
been negotiated since the Biden administration, which, apparently, the Yankee
lackey Zelensky has been resisting. The contradiction Zelensky faces is that,
as the country's president, he is obliged to defend Ukraine's sovereignty and
territorial integrity (formal political independence), and that, as a lackey of
imperialism, primarily Yankee, he must serve the interests of the master (we
differentiate between lackey and puppet status), that is, capitulate to
imperialism.
On the
other hand, the difference between Biden and Trump on the matter is that the
former has tried to use diplomatic means, plus pressure and threats of all
kinds, to get Zelensky to commit to the Yankee "peace" plan, while
the latter has directly and publicly resorted to threats and actions to gain
acceptance of the Yankee "peace" plan, which represents capitulation
and the renunciation of the country's formal independence.
Since Zelensky
depends on the help of Yankee imperialism, what we've been seeing is an
unconditional capitulation from this lackey in several acts, and the end we can
foresee is anything but flattering for him.
The
following Sunday (March 2), Zelenky went to England for a non-binding meeting
with the British Prime Minister, along with his counterparts from Germany,
France, etc., and the president of NATO, who "advised" him to follow
the proposals for peace talks with Russia under Donald Trump and to commit to
good behavior. At that meeting, he was offered a "peace plan" from
England and the EU, with the latter participating at the negotiating table with
the Americans and Russians. Since the EU is divided, to "avoid
blockages," it was agreed these days to form a "coalition of the
willing" to support Ukraine, after the US suspended its military aid and
electronic and satellite surveillance and intelligence.
On Monday,
March 3, Trump also criticized the European heads of state and government, who
had met the day before with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in London
for a summit in support of Ukraine. Referring to efforts to end the war in
Ukraine, the US president wrote that European leaders at the meeting
"stated flatly that they can't do the job without the United States."
However, it "probably isn't a big statement" to demonstrate
"strength toward Russia." "What are they thinking?" Trump
added.
Trump
escalated his attacks on Zelensky in front of reporters at the White House,
stating that Zelensky "won't last much longer" if there isn't a
ceasefire. "You wouldn't listen to a person like that for very long,"
Trump said. "Because I think Russia wants a solution, and I think the
Ukrainian people want a solution, too." Zelensky should also "value
more" the billions of dollars in military aid Washington has given Kyiv in
its fight against Russia.
When asked
about the raw materials deal with Ukraine, which was not signed as planned
after the scandal, Trump said this agreement was not off the table. Regarding
the possibility of the US now suspending military aid to Ukraine, he told
reporters: "I haven't even talked about that yet. (...) We'll see what
happens."
Meanwhile,
US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz demanded an apology from Zelensky.
"What we need to hear from President Zelensky is that he regrets what
happened," Waltz told Fox News.
As we
already know, US "aid" to Ukraine was immediately suspended. And now
we know that at yesterday's meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between the US
delegation led by Foreign Minister Marco Rubio and the Ukrainian government
delegation, which was not led by Zelensky, the latter accepted all of the
Yankees' conditions and agreed to resume the "aid" immediately.
Referring
to efforts to end the war in Ukraine, the US president wrote that European
leaders at the meeting "stated flatly that they can't do the job without
the United States." However, it's "probably not a great
statement" to demonstrate "strength toward Russia." "What
are they thinking?" Trump added.
Trump
escalated his attacks on Zelensky in front of reporters at the White House,
claiming that Zelensky "won't last much longer" without a ceasefire.
"You wouldn't listen to a person like that for very long," Trump
said. "Because I think Russia wants a solution, and I think the Ukrainian
people want a solution, too." Zelensky should also "value more"
the billions of dollars in military aid Washington has given Kyiv in its fight
against Russia.
When asked
about the raw materials deal with Ukraine, which was not signed as planned
after the scandal, Trump said this deal was not off the table. Regarding the
possibility of the US suspending military aid to Ukraine now, he told
reporters: "I haven't even talked about that yet. (...) We'll see what
happens."
"Meanwhile,
US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz demanded an apology from Zelensky.
"What we need to hear from President Zelensky is that he regrets what
happened," Waltz told Fox News."
As we
already know, US "aid" to Ukraine was immediately suspended. And now
we know that at yesterday's meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between the US
delegation led by Foreign Minister Marco Rubio and the Ukrainian government
delegation, which was not led by Zelensky, the latter accepted all of the
Yankees' conditions and agreed to resume the "aid" immediately.
During his
appearance before Congress, Trump announced that Zelensky had sent a very
appropriate letter of apology, stating that he would submit to Trump's
leadership and conditions for peace talks, as stated in the following press
release>
March 5,
2025, 7:05 am
During his
appearance before Congress, Trump announced that Zelensky had sent a very
appropriate letter of apology and stated that he submitted to Trump's
leadership and conditions for peace talks, as seen in the following press
release>
March 5,
2025, 7:05 am
After six
good weeks in office, US President Trump delivered his first address to
Congress. He also spoke about rapprochement with Zelensky and negotiations with
Russia. ...Donald Trump signaled a rapprochement between the two states.
Ukraine is ready to sign a raw materials agreement, Trump said in his first
address to Congress since returning to the White House, referring to an
"important letter" he received from Zelensky. He also affirmed that
Ukraine is willing to "come to the negotiating table as soon as
possible" to move closer to a lasting peace. "At the same time, we have
had serious discussions with Russia and have received strong signals that they
are ready for peace," Trump said. ...(Zerlenskzy) A few hours before
Trump's speech on short message service, he called the dispute with the US
president regrettable and declared his willingness to work for a lasting peace
under the US president's leadership.
Also, on
March 5, 2025, it was reported:
CIA
confirms US cut off intelligence for Ukraine
Intelligence
transmission is currently suspended, CIA chief Ratcliffe stated.
Ukraine's
special envoy offers information
US special
envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg had recently attempted to explain Trump's
strategy. In a discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank in
Washington, Kellogg argued that the proposed agreement to extract rare earths
and other raw materials would protect Ukraine from possible future attacks by
Russia: "If the United States pursues direct economic interests in
Ukraine, it will also want to protect those interests directly." This
serves as a de facto security guarantee for Ukraine.
Currently,
military aid is only suspended, not terminated, Kellogg emphasized. The purpose
of this pause is to finally make it clear to Ukraine: the United States wants
to end the war, not at some point, but now. "We're serious. And you have
to understand that we're serious," Kellogg explained.
Does Trump
have leverage against Putin?
The former
general opined that the meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House
failed because Zelensky pressured Trump to speak publicly, siding with him and
against Putin. The United States is now in a mediator position, with
"incentives and pressure, carrots and sticks for both sides."
What is the
pressure on Russia?
Kellogg's
vague response was that it was also about frozen Russian assets. It also
focused on taking action against the shadow fleet to increase Russian oil
exports and "actually enforce" existing sanctions against Russia.
As a
result, according to Kellogg, an end to the war in Ukraine and a renewed
rapprochement between the United States and Russia would benefit all parties.
On a geostrategic level, it is an opportunity for the United States to break
the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran axis, which is "a real threat to the
United States."
All of this
has to do with the collusion of the sole hegemonic superpower and the atomic
superpower Russia, who are seeking to agree not only on how to divide Ukraine,
but also on a general agreement not only on atomic and missile weapons, but
also on economic and political matters.
Today,
March 12, we learn that at the meeting in Saudi Arabia yesterday, between the
US delegation, led by Foreign Minister Marco Rubio, and the Ukrainian
government delegation, which was not led by Zelensky, the latter accepted all
of the Yankees' conditions regarding the "ceasefire agreement," etc.,
and agreed to resume "aid" immediately.
Putin's
government has yet to comment on the US proposal, which the Ukrainian
government has agreed to. However, an article in El País today stated:
"The
Kremlin does not want to anger Trump. And the negotiations have been divided
between discussions about the future of Ukraine, on the one hand, and
Russian-US relations, on the other." The US president announced this
Wednesday that a delegation was heading to Moscow. Six members of the Russian
government told the independent newspaper The Moscow Times that Russia wants to
arrange a personal meeting between Trump and Putin in a third country in April
or May. "Washington could lose motivation [toward Moscow]. Opponents of
rapprochement with us have become more active in the White House, and the
Europeans are trying to dissuade Trump,” one of the sources told the newspaper
(Russia's war in Ukraine, The truce plan in Ukraine puts Putin in a dilemma
between angering Trump or Russian nationalists, Javier G. Cuesta, Moscow - 13
2025 – El País newspaper).