“In this great contemporary crisis, the proletariat is not a spectator; it is an actor. In it the fate of the world proletariat is to be resolved. From it – according to all odds and predictions – the proletarian civilization, the socialist civilization, will emerge, destined to succeed the declining, decadent, moribund capitalist, individualist, and bourgeois civilization. Now, more than ever, the proletariat needs to know what happens in the world. It cannot know it by way of the fragmented, occasional, homeopathic reports of the daily cable – in most instances, badly translated, and worse written – coming always from reactionary agencies charged with discrediting the Revolution’s parties, organizations, and men, and of discouraging and disorienting the world proletariat.
(…) The world crisis is, then, an economic and a political crisis. And, it is also, above all, an ideological crisis. The affirmative and positivist philosophies of bourgeois society are, from long ago, undermined by a current of skepticism, of relativism. Rationalism, historicism, positivism, irremediably decline. This is undoubtedly the deepest aspect, the gravest symptom, of the crisis. This is the most definite and deepest indication that what is in crisis is not only bourgeois society’s economy, but capitalist civilization.
(…) History teaches us that every new social state has taken shape on the ruins on the preceding social state, and that between the emergence of one and the downfall of the other, there has, logically, been an intervening period of crisis.
We are witnessing the disintegration,
the agony of a worn-out, senile, decrepit society, and, at the same time, we
are witnessing the slow and restless gestation, the formation, the creation, of
the new society. All of U.S. who are bound to the new society and separated
from the old by sincere ideological affinity, must profoundly fix our gaze on
this agitated and intense transcendental period in human history.”
José Carlos Mariátegui, HISTORY OF
THE WORLD CRISIS, Lima, June 1923
“Chairman Gonzalo established the international line of the Communist Party of Peru. As proletarian internationalists, he teaches us that we must begin by unfolding the Peruvian revolution through the People’s War as part of, and at the service of, the world proletarian revolution. We are marching towards our inalterable goal, Communism; taking into account that each revolution is unfolded within the zigzags of world politics.
In appraising the world situation,
Chairman Gonzalo begins with Lenin’s thesis: ‘Imperialism’s economic relations
constitute the core of the entire international situation as it now exists.
Throughout the twentieth century, this new, highest and final stage of
capitalism has fully taken shape.’ and that the difference between oppressed
and oppressor countries is a distinctive feature of imperialism. Since we are
in its final and highest phase, imperialism, in order to analyze the current
situation we cannot depart from the fundamental contradiction of capitalism.”
Communist Party of Peru, First Congress, International Line
In the context of the above quotations, let us see how the current situation of world crisis of all orders is perceived by the imperialist representatives of politics and economy and how the subjective reflection of the same is expressed in the media linked to them, in the monopoly of the press. In other articles, we will deal more thoroughly with its expression in our hill, the proletariat and the peoples of the world. But, as it will be seen from the reading, they are present, because in all the world events is present the development of the contradiction world revolution against world counter-revolution.
Let U.S. review some articles that allow us to highlight the main events and the reflection of the objective situation in them. Of which, we only take some points that, due to their importance for understanding the situation as a whole, we believe to be necessary to highlight:
“Christine Lagarde... in the TV-Blooberg studio of the U.S. Stock Exchange in Davos (...) the President of the European Central Bank (in response to the question of a possible second presidential term of Trump) said: ‘that would be the choice of the American people,’ but naturally she would ‘worry a lot,’ the situation would be serious, America is the largest national economy, the largest military power in the world.
Lagarde is going the same way as many other participants of the World Economic Forum: Although it was expected, Trump's victory in Iowa went through the corridors of the World Economic Forum like a shock wave. Pessimism is back again, at least from the point of view of the markets, which by the end of the year had been put aside, it was suddenly there again.”
This refers to the fact that the course of
the U.S. stock market shares rose from October 31 last year until January 16,
2024. The pace of the current run on the U.S. stock market, causes concerns, so
“investment advisor” Ed Yardeni opined: “We wonder if it is an emotional exuberant
attack that raise the multipliers and could cause a speculative bubble in the
stock market, as it happened in the late 1990s.” At that time, the euphoria of
the establishment of the internet and the cell phone drove the markets ever
upwards. Today, the progress of artificial intelligence excites investors. What
links yesterday and today is the growth in value (...) To a large extent, the
current race is on account of the big tech stocks, the “Glorious Seven”:
Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla. On average, their
shares have risen by more than 20% since October 31. Thus, they not only pulled
up other Tech-stocks, but the market in general (...) The big difference with
the Tech-bubble at the turn of the century is that, what lifts the course of
the stocks of the current bull run is not only fueled by hopes, but it is
yielding gains. Also the valuations are not as high as at that time, as the
Bank of America has accounted for (Concerns about the pace on Wall Street,
Andreas Neuhaus, in Mäkte, HB, Weekend 26/27/28 January 2024, No. 19.)"
Thus, the danger of a bubble in the stock market is another issue to be
considered in the unfolding of imperialism in its phase of major decomposition,
here expressed in the rentist-parasitist decomposition of imperialism.
After this interpolation, we resume the
quotations from the article, which we interrupted:
“The Trump 2 scenario, the growing attacks of the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, the words of warning of the central bankers, which is not yet to be reckoned with the downgrading of the banking indices, pressed the mood at the Nobel Ski Resort in Switzerland. Hardly any politician at Davos referred to the most difficult political situation in decades — with the war in Ukraine and Israel, and the threatening escalation of the conflict between the USA and China on the Taiwan issue. There was hardly any economist who did not warn of the increasing fragmentation of the world economy (he refers to the relocation of production to secure the supply of intermediate goods and production closer to the markets, our note), which runs counter to efficiency and threatens our well-being. There was hardly a speaker who did not refer to the threatening energy emergency, which will lead to higher prices and which, especially in Europe, is hampering its competitiveness.
And who can argue with that: Financial crisis, crisis of the Euro, Pandemic, wars — the timing of the crises fuels the feeling that we are in an exceptional situation. ‘Multi-crisis’ is the de facto description of the situation” (from the German Handelsblatt, Weekend 19/20/21 January 2024, No. 14, “Weltwirtschaftforum, Geopolitische Risiken drueken auf die Maerkte. Lange blendeten Investors die weltweiten Kriesenherde aus. Jetzt holt sie die Realitaet ein, wie es an den Maerkten weitwergehen koennte.” In English: World Economic Forum, Geopolitical risks pressure the markets. For a long time investors ignored the burning global hot spots, now they realize the reality, what could happen to the markets).
The article cited above mentions three
possible scenarios, which dominate the talks in Davos, which according to the
article are: “1) Markets push geopolitical risks aside, 2) Geopolitics dampens
the euphoria (the DAX ended 2023 with a very good plus of 20 percent. Investors
were in the last week of the year driven by the hope of a rapid rate cut or
Central Bank rates) and 3). Political risks escalate, markets plunge.”
And, about the latter, he writes:
“Iran goes to war with Israel, Russia gains control in Ukraine, China uses Trump's new election for a military coup against Taiwan-the worst-case scenario is not the most likely, but it is not impossible. However long it takes, markets can no longer ignore the risks. Energy prices may jump, stocks fall in the markets. U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini says: it does not take ‘a major escalation of the conflict in the Middle East to raise energy prices and force Central Banks to reconsider their current positions.’ Roubini has long warned about the ‘mega-threats’ to the world economy. Also the danger that the Taiwan crisis could escalate, he considers it very real.
After all, it does not take a major
escalation of geopolitical conflicts for a major market correction. Stock
investment expert Mohamed El-Erian expects an ‘extremely difficult year.’ I
expect a global year of weak growth, especially as the special situation in the
U.S. cannot be sustained. The possibility for a recession in the U.S. and
Europe is high. And also China can no longer keep up with expectations.
According to economist El-Erian” (quoted article).
The German economy has been in recession since the end of last year and according to the German TV Daily News today, January 31, 2024, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office on January 30, 2024, as you can read below:
“Federal Statistical Office
The German economy shrank in the fourth quarter
As of: January 30, 2024. 11:51 A.M.
There are increasing signs of
recession in Germany. The economy contracted in the last three months of 2023.
Economists do not expect any improvement in the current quarter either: the
German economy contracted at the end of 2023. According to the Federal
Statistical Office, gross domestic product fell by 0.3 percent in the fourth
quarter compared to the previous quarter, corrected for price, seasonality and
calendar reasons, and compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, the decline is
0.2 percent. The authority thus confirmed initial estimates from mid-January.
Economic performance had stagnated in the previous two quarters. For the full
year 2023, gross domestic product fell by 0.3 percent.”
Recent reports confirm that the expected
recovery did not occur in the last quarter of last year. It is technically
speaking in recession. Germany is considered the economic locomotive of the EU.
It is also suffering from a “multi-crisis,” which bourgeois political
scientists characterize as a rupture of the post-war political and social
consensus; which, in our opinion, means that those at the top can no longer
rule as before and those at the bottom no longer want to live as before.
The contradictions in the reactionary camp with the irruption of the
ultra-reactionary AfD (Alternative for Germany—Trans) party have sharpened;
which is leading to a new alignment of the other forces in the reactionary
camp, in their parties and representatives; which are testing as electoral
offers a “democratic” profile that assumes part of the speech and modified
demands of AfD — eclectic fascist-ultraliberal-nationalist-antiimmigrant, etc.
speech to manipulate the discontent of the masses against the institutions of
the State, the parties, the economy and its representatives, including the
media. All of them, with their differences because they have different and
opposing particular interests, seek to sow fear and launch the masses against
the masses. The first against foreigners in general and especially against
Ukrainians and Muslims and the others against “anti-Semites,” that is against
Muslims and other nationalities, Russophobia and Germans themselves who are for
the Palestinian cause. Thus, further reactionarization of the established
parties of the ruling coalition and outside the government, including the
so-called “The Left Party,” which has split and the party that has emerged from
this split intends to capitalize on the discontent and rejection of the
population. This particular form is taking the reactionarization of the State
and the law in this country.
As they themselves have recognized, the masses are dissatisfied with everything and against everything that signifies and defends the current situation in force and they are on the move. The masses are the arena of contention between revolution and counterrevolution and between reactionary forces. Here it comes, that all this anti-AfD propaganda and mobilization seeks to manipulate the masses for the defense of their “democracy,” the imperialist order in force and to win elections. Moreover, to counter the big pro-Palestinian demonstrations and to justify the Palestinian genocide with the Holocaust.
Recent strikes, such as that of the DDL union and the current ones, show, according to established political analysts, that the old State-employer-union consensus, where the latter moderated their demands in exchange for job stability, has been broken. Now the workers' struggle is for wages, working conditions and working hours. They are demanding a reduction in the working day. The situation is symptomatic, so the media and bourgeois specialists are becoming more and more aware of the subject, as for example the following news or commentary on the strikes and growth of union members:
“Why are unions popular again?
As of: January 31, 2024. 8:11 A.M.
Unions sometimes see a sharp increase in membership; many young people also want to organize in unions. Researchers observe a new self-confidence among employees.
An analysis by Claudia Wehrle, ARD financial editorial team.
It's good news for the unions: membership is on the rise. This applies both to small organizations such as the food, leisure and catering union (NGG) and the large service union Ver.di: last year almost 130,000 new members joined IG Metall. ‘Ver.di is well received by young people,’ says President Frank Werneke. The last time there was a comparable positive membership development was in the mid-1980s, when the unions fought for a 35-hour week.
(…)
Strikes are good for recruiting members, and the fact that young people in particular are showing a renewed interest in organizing as unions may have something to do with the numerous strikes of the recent past. Whether in the retail trade, at airlines or recently at Deutsche Bahn: many employees have stopped work to take to the streets, sometimes for several days, to demand higher wages and better working conditions. The economic situation and also the growth of the sector and the labor shortage are creating new self-confidence for many employees. ‘Whether Germany is economically fit for the future and remains competitive also depends to a large extent on whether it has well-trained and qualified employees,’ say WSI researchers. Many employees want proper appreciation. Being organized in a union provides an impetus to strengthen demands.”
The problem of the economic struggle of the
class, of the proletariat and of the workers in general, the problem of wages,
working hours, working conditions and rights such as union, strike, insurance,
retirement, etc., are problems of vital importance that we cannot avoid,
because if we avoid them we cannot develop the work of the proletariat,
especially as things are developing, the mass is in movement and deploys
greater activity, magnificent conditions to advance in this field as seen in
Europe itself.
It is an expression of the development of the revolutionary or objective
situation; of the magnificent conditions for the development of the subjective
forces of the revolution, which the communists in formation in this country, as
in the rest of Europe, are developing in the midst of theoretical and practical
action, as the progressive and democratic media The Red Herald as well as DVD
show.
Another article in the same issue of HB
writes: “German weakness unsettles Europe. The concern is great abroad, that
the weakness of the most important national economy of the EU has an effect on
its own growth (Gerd Hoehler, Sandra Louven, Gregor Waschimki, Christian
Wermke, Athen, Madrid, Paris, Rom.”
This is how the situation in the EU and
Germany is described in broad outline:
“‘The EU can no longer count on the German growth anchor. This impression dominates the European capitals,’ while the Federal Statistical Office in this week confirmed, what had already been configured: the Federal Republic experienced in 2023 a recession, the Gross Domestic Product (BIS) contracted 0.3 percent.
For 2024 forecasts announce that at best a small GDP growth is expected. The concern abroad in Europe is great, that the most important national economy of the EU will develop in a weak condition for a long time — and that it will have an effect on its own growth. ‘The European economic engine of the second decade of the present century is meanwhile plagued by anemia.’ writes the French newspaper ‘Le Monde.’ The business newspaper ‘Les Ecos’ sees it this way: the ‘end of Germany AG's exceptional position’ has come (...) The French economy, which last year still grew by one percent, has a close relationship with the neighboring country. Germany is France's most important trading partner, buying goods and services worth four percent of France's GDP every year.
About 14 percent of French exports in 1922 went to the neighboring country, while twelve percent of its imports came from the Federal Republic.
‘If Germany does well, so does France,’ said Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire a few months ago in an interview with the Handelsblatt. In response to how both neighbors must find a common answer to the problem of securing Europe's future with its aging population, its productivity, its competitive capacity and growth as a continent.”
What the newspaper says about Italy is interesting because it shows that the economic relations between the imperialist countries is not between equals, while Germany is the first economic power of the EU, Italy is the third, here the evidences of the subjection of the latter with respect to the former:
“In Italy, too, they are concerned about the phase of German weakness (...) That is to say, (Italian) exports to other countries have declined due to the recession — but the drop (of 6.4 percent) with Germany is the largest of all EU countries (...) Germany is Italy's most important trading partner. In the automotive industry in particular, the two countries are closely linked by a close network of suppliers and producers. Industrial producers in Italy in the year 2022 exported goods worth 73 billion Euros to Germany — that is equivalent to 12.5 percent of all exports in the sector. More than half of the sales are inputs, which go into production (…)”
Spain and Greece are not suffering the effect of the German recession for the moment, they like France have been stimulated by the growth of tourism after the pandemic but it is necessary to quote what the article says about Greece:
"Greater is the concern in Greece about the political instability in Berlin. In view of the problems of the Semaphore (referring to the ruling coalition in Germany between SPD, (Social Democratic Party of Germany—Trans) the Greens and the Liberals) and the rise of the AfD, one may ask, ‘if Germany in this year not only economically, but also politically derails and drags Europe down, writes ‘Naftemporiki’ (an economic daily).”
DECOMPOSITION OF REVISIONISM IS EXPRESSED IN CHINA
On the situation in China, already the title of the article from which we quote some
statements of the former president of the European Chamber of Commerce in
Beijing, Joerg Wuttke, expresses from his point of view of German imperialism
the problem — crisis of social-imperialist regime: revisionism; standard-bearer
of capitalist restoration, the bureaucrat faction drives the development of
capitalism subject to the needs of the imperialist world market, fascist
political regime; then, the development of capitalism needs market conditions
(open competition) for internal development and a bourgeois-democratic regime,
because these are the best conditions for the development of capitalism
(Chairman Gonzalo)- since 2012, the regime seeks a middle way through the
policy of developing the internal economy based on consumption and less on
exports (this, also, because after the world crisis 2007-2009 the world
imperialist economy is oriented to the re-localization of production shorter
input production chains and closer to the centers of final production and
consumption, example: value chains or vertical organization of the monopolies
from top to bottom from the U.S. and Canada to Mexico and Central America),
since before the Pandemic the failure of Xi Jinping’s inward development policy
is being expressed. Therefore, these statements have a testimonial value in
this regard, here are some of the questions of the Handesblatt (HB) and the answers
of the expert:
“Question from HB: Mr. Wuttke, the Chinese economy has grown in 2023 by about 5.2 percent according to reports. Is this positive news?
Response: The Chinese economy has reached its 2023 growth target. But, going forward, its economic development is worrisome. The political support announced by Beijing does not seem to be enough to boost the economy or the market. There is no sign that this can change quickly.
(…)
What exactly is your opinion?
Many problems have appeared, the same ones that were recognizable years ago: overcapacity of producers of different products, overcapacity in the construction sector. China is in the midst of a real estate crisis. But what is more surprising and leads to more consumer confusion, is that the government has done almost nothing to ease the crisis, apart from a couple of warm words here and there, a couple of warm words here and some money in some sectors, which belong to the technology sector. But what people are interested in is the real estate sector. That was a shocking government inaction.
(…)
Looking ahead to the next few years and beyond, what can replace the real estate sector, so that China's economy can return to growth?
Nothing. The real estate sector has contributed to 25 percent of the GDP. That can be lowered in a transition phase and then try in parallel to raise consumption. But, consumption does not rise naturally, if consumers are insecure. This is only helped by the all-purpose use of exports, which is currently happening on a massive scale. China's installed capacity is sufficient to supply the whole world with solar panels.
What about other sectors?
For example, there are 140 car companies, of which 40 are significant. These companies can produce 50 million cars in China, but sell only 23 million of them in their own market. The 27 million that cannot be sold in China represent the size of the U.S. and EU market. Also in steel, aluminum there is overcapacity. That leads to the fact that China will have more stress with its trading partners, because somehow it has to find a way out of that installed overcapacity. And China is already dealing with it now, that manufacturers make a lot of products, but without profit.
(…) China's overcapacity is damaging not only the trade relationship with Europe, but China itself. China produces, but without profit (...) we can accept this to a certain extent (...) Dumping and subsidies (...) China's cheap products are also profitable for us in certain sectors.
HB: Finally, the control of the economy has grown massively in China. So, there is a tightening of laws, which in fact penalizes all information gathering. How are European companies doing?
Response: They feel it. Still, most of them have not yet experienced that, because that has nothing to do with the day-to-day business. It has to do with companies in the energy sector (...) This is observed in Chinese firms working in the consulting sector that feel insecure, how to give now data or services to foreign firms.
(…)
China will certainly not be reformed in the coming years (...) The EU-China summit in December was a No-Show. Nothing was promised, Europe got nothing.
HB: Is India an alternative?
China's national economy is almost 15 trillion dollars larger than India's. If China continues to have a very strong growth in the next five years and India a growth of about 6 percent per year, China will still be around 17.5 trillion in 2028. And at 17.5 trillion it will still be larger than India in 2028. The base effect is important. And with 17.5 trillion dollar it is like the size of the EU 27. That's why everyone wants to be there.
HB: How has China changed in the past years?
Response: Nowadays, ideology is ahead, that was different than before. Previously it was the economic growth ahead. There are some decision makers, in the economic segment, who are interested to some extent in putting the economy on its feet. But weak economic growth seems to be admitted as necessary. China desires with an extreme security apparatus to achieve a stable society.
HB: What does that mean?
Stable means in the sense of not going forward, to grow and to be innovative. That means fundamentally to be stable is to march slowly to a standstill. That is for me after 30 years in China something extremely untypical for this country. Previously they wanted to march forward.”
Here is expressed one aspect of the development of the objective situation and the other, the proletariat and the Chinese people are reactivating their struggles for vindication and their struggle for power, counter-restoration through the people's war, for which they are making efforts to reconstitute their party as a Marxist-Leninist-Maoist party as shown by their actions for the 130th anniversary of the birth of Chairman Mao.
Tralation: Red Library