Thursday, November 28, 2024

URUGUAY: The new FA government will continue with the recipes of the IMF, WB, etc.


Last Sunday, the runoff was held to determine who, of the two candidates with the most votes in the first round of the general elections in Uruguay, would be the winner of the new edition of the electoral farce to elect the president of the republic. The opposition candidate Yamandú Orsi of the Frente Amplio (FA) was elected, and Álvaro Delgado (Partido Nacional), who will replace the current president Luis Lacalle Pou of the Partido Nacional. The change will take place on March 1. Lacalle Pou expressed on the same election morning his intention that whoever is president-elect would accompany him during the Mercosur summit, on December 5 and 6, which Uruguay is hosting. Only 11 days after the elections.

 

Asked about the challenges at the level of diplomacy, he said that "the challenges are first internal, the situation of children, adolescents, security problems. These are the challenges that were present throughout the campaign, in all the casts; And with respect to the region, I am deeply integrationist, in a world that is closing even more you have to have a good relationship with the region, because today in a month everything can change, the world is sitting on a powder keg.”

 

That is to say, in the electoral debate and in the plans of the new government the great problems of the country do not figure, not even remotely.

 

The new government of the FA, will be a government of continuity as part of the rotation in office, between representatives of the buyer faction and the bureaucratic one of the great bourgeoisie of this country. A semi-colonial and semi-feudal society on which a bureaucratic capitalism is developed at the service of mainly Yankee imperialism. The President of the Republic is the head of the Uruguayan State, a landowner-bureaucratic State at the service of imperialism.

 

As the media has reported about the future cabinet and as Orsi himself has said: “we must sit down in terms of political balance, profile and technical strength.”

 

The above indicates that, due to the lack of a parliamentary majority, the new government will not be a stable government, but one that will depend on lobbying with the opposition parties. Just as it was with the government of its predecessor, the comprador faction of the Uruguayan big bourgeoisie (Lacalle of the FN), which replaced the previous government of the Frente Amplio (FA), there will not be any major differences except for a certain bias towards state intervention in the economy but with the well-known IMF recipe of macroeconomic discipline and economic openness - to foreign investment and imports. Thus, there is no need to think about weak policies to promote industry, which has made Uruguay one of the most expensive countries in the world. Less than addressing the land problem, one of the most unjust in Latin America with one of the highest concentrations of land in the hands of large landowners, as indicated by the Gini index of 0.84.

 

The appointment of him as future Minister of Economy and strongman of his election campaign says much about the hesitant character of this new government of the bureaucratic faction, which the reactionary media call “leftist”. We quote:

For now, his cast has only one confirmed member: Gabriel Oddone, a respected economist who comes from the private sector and who has been called to lead the Ministry of Economy and Finance. When he was presented, three months ago, in the middle of the campaign, the most radical sector of the Broad Front (minority) protested for considering him too center, but those complaints fell on deaf ears.”

 

According to his own definitions, Orsi, who leads the moderate majority of the Broad Front, will support, together with Oddone, the guidelines of the current administration in terms of macroeconomic order, clear rules for investors and openness to the outside. In fact, the same formula that the Broad Front supported in its 15 years of government.”

 

The above paragraph leaves no room for doubt about the character of the new Frente Amplio government, which will be of the same stamp as that of “Pepe” Mujica and Tabaré Vázquez, that is, a follower of the economic policy recipes of the international imperialist institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, CEPAL, IDB, etc., in the service of mainly Yankee imperialism, which, in order to justify the sale of the country to imperialism, distributes as “social policy” the crumbs that the imperialists leave behind from the exploitation of the country.

 

Regarding the benefits of the system with respect to “income distribution” and the “low levels of inequality,” which the FA speaks of in its own electoral discourse, these are only words, which abruptly clash with the reality of the character of Uruguayan society itself. Because it is not a problem of a change of government but of the old society that is in general crisis ready to be swept away by the people's war. Let's read:

 

"During the presidential debate last week, Orsi said that the Frente Amplio has a commitment to stability, which involves "macroeconomic balance and the certainties that every government must provide." He added that emphasis must be placed on "income distribution."

 

His designated minister had explained days before, in a much-talked-about television interview, his vision of the country's development, in order to know what could be expected from his eventual leadership of the national economy.

"There is no prosperous country in the world that has high levels of inequality. The success of societies in the world are societies that generate sufficient resources and that at the same time unite society with low levels of inequality. That is the key and Uruguay has that in its matrix, and that requires active employment policies and active income distribution policies," he said.

 

This is the menu of policies that the Frente Amplio is going to put on the table, because we firmly believe that there is a combination, a balance between stimulating growth, stimulating innovation, stimulating entrepreneurs to take risks and have attractive returns for those risks, but at the same time that this is distributed equitably, not waiting for it to spill over,” he added in his conversation with Nicolás Núñez.

 

According to what economist Aldo Lema explained to LA NACION (Argentina), “the biggest challenge will be to increase economic growth in an external context that is projected to be very complex. Initially there may be a certain tailwind due to Argentina's reactivation and the rise in the price of dollars. But from the extraregional environment the wind would be against due to low global growth, still restrictive financial conditions, the global strength of the dollar and the consequences of the Trump government.”

 

Economist Ignacio Munyo said that there was no longer room to increase spending. “For me, the absolute priorities are competitiveness and the reorientation of spending without an increase, focusing on the priorities that are established in the commitment made by the candidate who won. For example, in child poverty, which is very high in Uruguay, in more investments in security, which is a whole issue, more investments in health, in education, research and development,” he said.

 

Regarding the future minister, he said that “he has worked a lot as a consultant with the private sector, he understands the restrictions, he understands the problems of competitiveness, that is good because he is someone who understands where Uruguay is and what it needs to be able to grow. He will have to roll up his sleeves and put into practice what he has written and said in hundreds of conferences.”

 

During the three previous FA governments, FDI, that is, imperialist investment, "tripled its historical values"

 

When the candidate and the future minister of economy talk about productivity and competitiveness, they are referring to the old bureaucratic path at the service of imperialism, as they themselves confess, when in a journalistic note in La Diaria Uruguay, Changes and continuities in the Uruguayan productive structure after 15 years of left-wing governments, March 22, 2021, Fernando Isabella, refers to his previous 15 years of government:

 

"The growth of productivity is also observed with special emphasis in some agricultural productions, which clearly leave behind the stagnation that characterized this sector for most of the last century. In particular, the growth of productivity is especially intense in competitive agro-export chains, which, while developing, reduce their job creation. Productivity jumps are also observed in services, whose general growth is driven by the most important activities. (...)

 

The context, international insertion and the productive structure

This entire process described was possible within the framework of an international context that was especially favorable for Uruguay, with high prices for the main export products and significant flows of foreign direct investment. However, a detailed look at the productive structure and the characteristics of the international insertion of our economy does not detect clear evidence in the sense of a structural transformation that would feed back into the cycle described above, through impulses of endogenous growth, that would generate firm bases for the continuity of the process and that would expand the margins of economic autonomy with respect to international cycles. In particular, the dependence on the prices of the few primary products on which the country bases its international insertion is clear.

 

Although important, the only exception in terms of transformation in international insertion is found in non-traditional services, which encompass various activities of relatively high sophistication and increasing weight in the country's export basket. In terms of goods, although changes are observed in the export basket, it continues to be centered on activities strongly associated with the country's natural resource endowment, with the historical presence of meat, the emergence of agricultural products, wood and cellulose, and some growth in dairy products; products that in general, with the exception of meat, continue to show little differentiation and low sophistication.

 

Likewise, it is observed that the traditional external restriction that has characterized most Latin American economies, including Uruguay, is still active. Thus, sustained economic growth leads to persistent and significant current account deficits, which calls into question the sustainability of growth in the long term and generates vulnerability to the reversal of international financial flows. This has its roots in deep structural causes associated with the external insertion of the Uruguayan economy, its role as a supplier of commodities with little processing and the consequent sectoral composition of the national economic structure, its low technological intensity and its specialization in activities that show low income elasticity of demand; that is, whose demand does not accompany the growth of people's income, which tends to concentrate progressively on goods and services of a higher technological or cultural level.

(...)

On the other hand, the process observed in the manufacturing industry indicates a continuity of a long-term process of specialization in the processing of national raw materials in the sense of static comparative advantages. In particular, there are three branches that explain the growth of the sector: food, cellulose and paper, and wood and wood products.

 

(...) Even in several of the branches that are expanding, a tendency to reverse the value-added process is observed, since exports are concentrated in increasingly primary links. In this way, the manufacturing industry, far from being a driving force of development and productive diversification, has acted in a reactive manner, in a kind of primary-dependent re-specialization. The only relevant exceptions in this sense would seem to be the chemical and pharmaceutical branches, which have managed to maintain their share of industrial added value."

 

But, as propagandists of the 15 years of FA government, they themselves do not feel very comfortable with the fact that the FA has promoted remote imperialist exploitation of the workforce in the Irish way or better as in India, when in a whiny tone and seeking relief they write:

 

"In passing, we mentioned the main flash of structural transformation observed: non-traditional services. These services cover a wide variety of activities, some highly sophisticated and others not so much, but which have shown significant export and employment dynamism, particularly in the case of highly skilled workers. Activities such as information technology, professional and technical services, financial services, logistics, administrative and back office services in general, whose operating logic is associated with the most recent global trends towards the relocation of activities. Driven by advances in information and communications technologies, tasks are carried out here that are part of the internal processes of companies located in different regions of the world, mainly the United States. Although the most common statistical sources do not allow us to adequately assess these activities, they can be approximated through the branch "services provided to companies", which, however, appear aggregated with other traditional activities of very low sophistication. However, when analysing the educational level of workers in this sector, we can see a firm trend towards growth in more sophisticated activities in a sector that, as a whole, accounts for approximately 120,000 jobs. It is a figure that is not insignificant."

 

This is the present of oppression and exploitation by imperialism, bureaucratic capitalism and semi-feudalism that the Frente Amplio serves with its program of a landowning-bureaucratic character of the bureaucratic fraction of the big Uruguayan bourgeoisie at the service of imperialism. It is not a future perspective for the proletariat and the people of Uruguay. They have the pending and overdue task of reconstituting their Communist Party as a militarized Marxist-Leninist-Maoist party to start the popular war and direct it to bring the democratic evolution to its culmination and move immediately and without any interruption to the socialist revolution.

 

SOME NOTES ON THE LAND PROBLEM IN URUGUAY

 

 


In Brazil, the number of farms decreased by 10.7% between 1985 and 2006. In Argentina, the number of farms also decreased by 20.8% between 1988 and 2002. Chile also recorded a decrease of 6.4% in the number of farms between 1997 and 2007. In Uruguay, the reduction was 21.4% in the period 2000-2011. The decreases experienced in these latter countries have been mainly in small-sized farms, which means that this downward trend could be concentrated in the family farming range, in favor of medium- and large-sized farms (Díaz-Bonilla, Saini, Creamer, & Henry, 2013).

Particularly striking are the values ​​and the trend of the land concentration index for some countries (see last column of table 1). In general, all coefficient values ​​are very high, which shows the high concentration of land (in fact, 12 of the 23 countries with complete information have Gini index values ​​equal to or greater than 0.8; 1.0 means a total degree of concentration). Among the countries that show a tendency to increase the index, all have values ​​greater than 0.8. (Structure and tenure of agricultural land in Latin America and the Caribbean Germán Escobar March 2016)


 

URUGUAY – UDELAR Rural Studies Center NINTH REPORT (2024)

 

he year 2023 was marked by a historic water crisis that affected the drinking water supply of 60% of the population (in the metropolitan area) and a drought throughout the national territory whose recorded history dates back more than 70 years. The water crisis (revealed) in addition to land grabbing (...) Uruguay is experiencing a hoarding of water by large companies that, during the water crisis, continued to use magnificent volumes, even increasing sales and profits from bottled water, but also developing foreign direct investment projects based on the exploitation of water resources. While for some specialists the “rural exodus” is a “demographic myth”

 

In Uruguay (Calvo, 2020), in order to correlate land grabbing with the depopulation of the countryside, the General Agricultural Census (hereinafter CGA) of the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries (MGAP) are one of the few databases that allow generating more evidence.

The last CGA was published in 2011. With the intention of maintaining a 10-year frequency, it was applied in 2022 and 2023 without reaching the universe of agricultural establishments included, which generates difficulties in constituting updated information on rural areas and changes at the agricultural level.

 

The denomination of the rural population, and therefore of rural territories in Uruguay, pose challenges for both public policy and academia. At the academic level, the diversity of meanings responds to the lack of consensus on its nature. During the 20th century, there were positions that proposed a dichotomy between urban and rural (Solari, 1958), as well as a coincidence between rural and agricultural, while referring to a continuous urban-rural gradient (Sorokin and Zimmerman, 1929).

 

Recent debates have taken up this discussion again and propose the necessary update, considering the rupture between rural and agricultural, which is why they point out the convenience of integrating criteria of residence and occupation into the definition of the rural population (Piñeiro, 2001; Mascheroni and Riella, 2010).

 

In more structural terms, access to territory and land in Uruguay is mainly linked to two forms of property: public and private. (...) the figure of corporations (Laws 16,060 of 1989 and 18,461 of 2009) has prevented the measurement of the foreign ownership of land, which is registered in the CGA when its owners are natural persons. This means that 40% of productive land, which is in the hands of companies with a contract (mainly corporations), may be covering up phenomena of foreign ownership.

 

(...)

At the level of applied socioeconomic statistics, perhaps family agricultural production is the one that has a higher degree of standardized data based on the Family Production Registry dependent on the General Directorate of Rural Development of the MGAP to account for the demand of collective subjects self-identified as family producers (...) On the other hand, rural wage earners have updated information from the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, from the ECH statistics of the INE, from the CGA information provided by the owner of the establishment that constitute a basis for generating public policies.

(...)

With respect to the ethnic ancestry of artisanal fishermen, rural workers and family producers, it would be desirable to generate an identification of the rural population with mainly Afro and indigenous ancestry, in order to adjust the intervention of the State for the promotion of their rights. In Uruguay, not only are there no affirmative policies for access to land and territory for Afro-descendants or descendants of indigenous peoples, but there is also no quantification of their participation as owners of agricultural establishments, artisanal vessels, or fishing permits.

On the other hand, (...) the debate on the "real demand" for land is reduced to the adjustment that the technical evaluation (...)

(...) given the scarcity of land (...) the quantification of the demand for land requires disaggregating".

 

And, the REPORT on Uruguay states the following:

 

In Uruguay, the water crisis and the scarcity of water, exacerbated by the advance of commercial monocultures and the extractive model, has generated a deep environmental and social crisis in rural areas. The commercialization of public lands and the foreignization of large areas, mainly by multinational forestry companies, have displaced many rural communities, affecting both their access to resources and their way of life.

 

Despite these difficulties, peasant organizations and local communities continue to fight (...) rural communities seek to preserve their ways of life, defending water, land and their right to exist in rural territories."

 

It is an important fact, regarding the development of bureaucratic capitalism in Uruguayan agriculture on a semi-feudal and semi-colonial basis and official statistics (agricultural censuses) to determine the weight of the peasantry in that country, there are similar problems to those in the rest of Latin American countries as we have seen above in the Report, whose authors are: Pablo Díaz Estévez and Verónica Núñez Scorza, researchers at the Land Policy Observatory of the Rural Studies Nucleus of the Northeast Region University Center of the University of the Republic - CENUR, Uruguay. https://nucleodeestudiosrurales.wordpress.com/